Saturday, December 17, 2005

Iran and Al Qaida: A Marriage of Convenience?

Filed under: Iran Watch and Terrorism by Chad at 1:34 pm UTC

Evan Kohlmann at The Counterterrorism Blog reveals a 1995 interview between Nashrat al-Ansar and then leader of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad Ayman al-Zawahiri. Evan notes that at the time of this interview, Zawahiri was already in bed with Al Qaida. At discussion is the relationship between Al Qaida and Iran, and the two distinct ethnicities involved. Al Qaida is largely a Sunni organization whereas the Shia control Iran. There are of course exceptions to those general rules for Al Qaida.

Are Al Qaida and Iran friends or foes? From the mouth of Zawahiri:

Our position regarding Iran is clear, and it is based on our Islamic faith and current events. As we have mentioned before, we are committed to the path of true righteousness, the path of the Sunna, and–thus–there are clear differences between our faith and the faith of the Shiites who believe in the 12th Imam. We see the 12-Imam Shiites as a group who have brought about heresy in Islam… Whoever believes in these claims after they were proven wrong is an apostate from Islam…

The above excerpt is only a very small portion of the entire interview worth reading.

It seems pretty clear cut, however I do not believe things are quite as they seem. Further in the interview Zawahiri states Iran did not help the mujahideen in the Afghan-Soviet War. While this is true, what is rather ironic is that Zawahiri castigates Iran’s refusal to help and uses his own religious beliefs to cast further stones, but at the same time condemns Iran for doing what was in their best interests. It is true Iran did what was in their best interests during this war, but so too did the United States, England, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan do what was in their best interests and the mujahideen was elated they had money, arms and even copies of the Koran printed in the United States to use against the “godless army” of the Soviet Union. Iran had a loose alliance with the Soviet Union whereas the other nations at least felt threatened by the communist empire. Zawahiri was not a warrior in the war, but he was a propogandist and religious zealout who used his previous work against the government of Egypt in his favor to whip the mujahideen into a religious frenzy to fight the Soviets while he was safe inside Pakistan. Coincidentally this is where he met Osama Bin Laden.

The larger issue though is whether Iran and Al Qaida could get along. The religious aspect and the words of Zawahiri back in 1995 cast serious doubt on any such relationship, though I do believe the two can not only get along but can cooperate. It is not a marriage based upon love, but one of convenince with a shared common enemy; Zionists and Infidels based primarily within the United States and Israel. Even in Zawahiri’s own words in this 1995 interview, he was able to put his objections towards the United States on hold during the Afghan-Soviet War to battle the Soviet Union. Why must we assume he cannot or has not done the same with Iran today?

As I have discusses previously on this site, it is widely believed some of Al Qaida’s leadership is sheltered inside Iran (also see Winds of Change for a full translation of the Cicero article in question), though that leadership may or may not be under house arrest. There are even rumors that place none other than Osama Bin Laden inside Iran under the watch of the Revolutionary Guard. The same rumor, which has yet to gain any traction likely due to lack of evidence to support it, indicates Bin Laden personally wrote Iran a letter asking for a safe haven following the toppling of the Taliban in Afghanistan and his initial venture into Waziristan. Iran accepted the transfer and granted Bin Laden safe passage and housing, guarded by members of the Revolutionary Guard. Bin Laden’s argument for safe harbor was based upon the two sharing a common enemy, the same common enemy as discussed above. It could be that Zawahiri has such disdain for the ruling party of Iran which could explain why no similar rumor has surfaced concerning Zawahiri in Iran.

Would Al Qaida leave its Sunni roots in areas where an opportunity can be had? They already have. While the believed leadership of Al Qaida is Sunni, the group recruits African jihadis which are neither Sunni or Shia. The group has also tried their hand at recruiting white jihadis, at least two of which are known to be currently among their ranks (Adam “Azzam the American” Gadahn and Matthew Stewart from Australia), which are neither Sunni nor Shia. The group used to be based in Afghanistan, a nation which until the Afghan-Soviet war was relatively Arab free without the need to divide Sunnis and Shittes.

Perhaps the better issue at hand is whether or not Iran could support a Sunni group. It is known Iran supports Hezbollah, but Hezbollah is largely a Shiite terrorist group operating out of Lebanon. While I cannot come accross direct evidence of Iran supporting a Sunni group, the nation’s past and current allies give question as to whether or not the nation’s supposed religious doctrine can be forgotten in certain times. The nation of Iran has been an ally to the Soviet Union turned Russia since the fall of the Shah, largely based upon sharing a common enemy when the Soviet Union was still intact and today because Russia is helping Iran build the nation’s nuclear program. Russia’s objection to Israel is also a reason. Iran is friendly with Cuba because they share a common perceived enemy. Even last month delegates from Iran tried to convince Fidel Castro to convert to Islam. Iran is friendly with Venezuela’s neo-Communist ruler Hugo Chavez for much of the same reasoning as Cuba. Iran is friendly with North Korea for sharing a common perceived enemy and North Korea’s assisstance in Iran’s nuclear program as well. India is a long-time ally of Iran, though the dominate religion in India is neither Sunni Islam or Shia Islam, much less any form thereof. To assume Iran cannot work outside of it’s ethnic and religious framework while preaching against doing so is a fallacy.

Of course the larger question is would Iran and Al Qaida forget their secretarian differences and their differences in the interpretation of Islam to form a common bond. I believe not only they would, but they are in fact doing so. Throughout the course of history people of different ehtnic and religious backgrounds have bonded together in what they deem as times of crisis. Al Qaida is, and has been for over a decade, in a time of crisis. Iran is in a time of crisis created by their own quest for nuclear energy, or a nuclear weapon as largely believed.

Couple this with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s quest to pave the way for the 12th Imam to rise from the well near Qom, Iran and this has all the markings of a cooperation based upon convenience and shared goals. The idea of paving the way for the 12th Imam is the spread of Islam throughout the world. Al Qaida too seeks to convert or kill everyone in its path, and their path has been defined by a series of smaller steps eventually overtaking the entire planet to their own interpretation of Islam, much like how Ahmadinejad sees the 12th Imam doing. Sunni Muslims do not believe in the 12th Imam, but Al Qaida and those who believe in the 12th Imam and believe his return to the Earth will create an Islamic utopia share the same basic belief and believe it is their religious duty to convert all to Islam. Granted only a small sampling of Shia Muslims believe the 12th Imam story will ever come to fruition nor that the 12th Imam can and should be brought out of hiding by Iran, but the theory persists among the Iranian leaders which are building a nuclear program and investing in missile research as we speak.

A marriage of convenience is hardly out of the question, and so too should the idea that Sunni Islamic fascists and a government of Shia religious fanatics could not bond together to bring the same conclusion; an Islamic utopia. Let Allah sort out the remainder and either punish those “who have brought about heresy in Islam” as Ayman al-Zawahiri says of the Shia.

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