The analysis comes from an educated view, but I am still skeptical.  Just like Zarqawi and the many near-misses and reports of his capture or death, I’ll believe Zawahiri is dead when years go by and we don’t see such a hateful man release a video.  Well, that or we’ll see his lifeless body and mass protests in support of a mass murderer that will ensue without question in some parts of the world.

The lack of a communiqué from al-Zawahiri is much more likely the result of a conscious decision to maintain radio silence because of a breach in al Qaeda’s operational security net. In other words, al-Zawahiri has likely survived, and is trying to stay beneath the radar. The strike in Chingai, while it did not eliminate al-Zawahiri, must have come very close to doing so…

Al Qaeda’s move deeper underground shows that U.S. intelligence has come very close to triangulating the likely location of al Qaeda’s global headquarters…

The two airstrikes have provided U.S. intelligence with a wealth of information, which the United States can use to pinpoint not just the places frequented by al-Zawahiri and his associates but also his actual hideout, as well as other key al Qaeda facilities that probably lie much deeper in the NWFP [Northwest Frontier Province of Pakistan]. This poses a dilemma for al Qaeda, which does not have the luxury to simply shift from one location to another, and this would again explain the decision to go offline…

Al Qaeda’s leaders are likely hiding very close to if not in a heavily populated area that is quite far from the Afghan-Pakistani border. This is actually the best defense the jihadists have in their arsenal; they believe it is unlikely that U.S. forces would conduct a strike so deep inside Pakistan and in an area so densely populated.

The strike in Damadola almost one year ago nearly took out Zawahiri.  While it missed the intended target after he decided not to dine at the location, the strike did hit other high-ranking Al Qaida members.  Couple that strike with the strike on the madrassa/training camp and there’s at least a good chance Zawahiri is hiding within that area.  It changes my view he was withing a large Pakistani city, though I would hardly be surprised if he escaped Waziristan or Buchistan to Lahore wearing a burqa in the middle of the night.

Zawahiri’s death would be an enormous blow to Al Qaida, far larger of a blow than the death of Osama bin Laden in my view.  Of course it’s my view Zawahiri is the leader of Al Qaida rather than OBL anyways.

HT Hot Air