Iran is still holding 15 British sailors hostage in Tehran, and it appears as if the sailors might be tried for espionage.

A website run by associates of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian president, reported last night that the Britons would be put before a court and indicted.

Referring to them as “insurgents”, the site concluded: “If it is proven that they deliberately entered Iranian territory, they will be charged with espionage. If that is proven, they can expect a very serious penalty since according to Iranian law, espionage is one of the most serious offences.”

There truly is no question the abduction of the 15 sailors was intentional and it firmly appears the sailors were within Iraqi waters.  Christopher Isham reports in The Blotter the abduction was the result of a United States raid in Irbil, Iraq where five IRGC commanders were captured, and that the Iranians will use the British sailors as bargaining chips to secure the release of the IRGC commanders.

But lost in this mix is the former Iranian general Ali Reza Asghari.  Asghari was either taken hostage while in Turkey or he defected.  The exact cause as to Asghari’s disappearence, to which it is still the great unknown where he is, remains a mystery, however Iran is convinced Asghari was detained against his will.  It is Asghari who would have first-hand knowledge of how Hezbollah is constructed and what steps, if any, Iran has taken to advance the cause of Hezbollah in the event a war does break out over Iran’s nuclear program.  Asghari would be, in my opinion, the more valuable bargaining chip. And it is not unlikely Asghari is the key piece to the Iranian hostage-taking puzzle, regardless whether he defected or was taken hostage.

We’ve seen Hezbollah take Israeli soldiers hostage in hopes of a prisoner exchange as recently as this past summer.  It was the incident that culminated in war between Israel and Hezbollah and the two Israeli soldiers, assuming they are still alive, are still being held against their will.  Hezbollah’s demands were generally whitewashed by the international press and we were told rather generic demands on the behalf of Hezbollah to secure the release of the captured Israeli soldiers.  Hezbollah wanted the release of Samir Kuntar, a man who murdered an Israeli parent before his four year-old child’s eyes prior to bashing in her skull with his gun.

Asghari is not necessarily of the same ilk as Kuntar, however Asghari is widely credited with forming Hezbollah and helping it grow.  Just like the Hezbollah desire to secure the release of Kuntar only surfacing in the back channels, the fate of Asghari might be the same.

The Iraqi government has stated the Brits were acting in Iraqi waters, and the Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zibari has called for the immediate release of the British hostages.   It appears as if the IRGC violated Iraqi sovereign waters to take hostages, which could easily be seen as a declaration of war.

Then comes in British Prime Minister Tony Blair who stated the following:

At a European summit in Berlin, Blair said Iran’s claim that the sailors had crossed into Iranian territorial waters “is simply not true.”

“I want to get (the situation) resolved in as easy and diplomatic a way as possible,” Blair said, but added he hoped the Iranians “understood how fundamental an issue this is for the British government.”

Compare England’s reaction towards Israel’s reaction.  Margaret Thatcher is no longer on Downing Street.