Watching the events unfold over the British hostages in Iran is like watching a play.  Everything thus far has been scripted and proceeds just as everyone would expect. Iran parades the 15 hostages on Iranian television, deciding to put the spotlight on the sole female hostage, Faye Turney, and is now using her for more propaganda purposes.

In a second letter that was allegedly written by Turney released by Iran, Turney calls for the Coalition to withdraw all soldiers from Iraq.

“Isn’t it time for us to start withdrawing our forces from Iraq and let them determine their own future?” said the letter, addressed to the British parliament and released to media organizations by the Iranian embassy in London.

Iran also released an astonishing five seconds of video supposedly of the hostage taking.  Five seconds demonstrates, I suppose, there’s nothing to hide nor there was anything premeditated.  Is it normal procedure to video tape such an action?

Iran is clearly sticking to its guns, and frankly why wouldn’t they?  England’s big stick at this point has been a possible referral to the United Nations as if the enormous beaurocratic mess could do anything to persuade Iran to release hostages when it cannot even get Iran to comply with official IAEA guidelines.

The Daily Mail presents the following map and timeline that represents what happened at the onset of the hostage taking.

This is the first I have heard of Iran changing the position of the boarded vessel following England pointing out the location is within Iraqi waters.  I am weary of this, however this change would be right in line with what we’ve seen unfold thus far.  It has become increasingly clear this was a premeditated attack by Iran due to the regime’s actions.

Yesterday Iran said they would release Turney, yet today they have decided it’s best to keep Turney in Tehran.  Sure, she’s a valuable propaganda piece to this entire situation.  Iran’s rationale for keeping Turney is due to if England makes a “fuss” over the hostages, as if England should just sit back and watch British civilians undergo a trial in Tehran with little more than a rough exhale.  England has an “incorrect attitude” according to Iran.

To cut to the chase, this is what would need to happen for Iran to voluntarily release the hostages.  England will have to make a public statement the British soldiers were in Iranian waters spying on Iran.  England would also have to find out the location of IRGC commanders taken hostage in Iraq and secure their release.

To secure the release of the British hostages from Iran forcefully, England might have to drop a bomb or two on one of Iran’s few oil refineries.  Iran imports gasoline, yet it exports oil in large quantities.  A strike against oil refineries in Iran would be catostrophic for the regime, yet it might also strengthen Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s case to the Iranian people that the collective West is the true aggressor.

Since neither will happen anytime soon, this hostage crisis will not end but instead we will be treated with any number of show trials in Iran.  This is what the Iranian regime does, and they do it well.