Tuesday, May 22, 2007

Reports: Iran Prepares for Uptick in Violence Inside Iraq and Afghanistan

Filed under: War, Iran Watch by Chad at 3:16 pm CDT

Iran is actively seeking to pacify the Middle East, or at least that is the line the Iranian government repeatedly trots out when accused of aiding the insurgency in Iraq. But two reports out now question the Iranian talking points.

First in Iraq, where it has long been known Iran is contributing to both Shia and Sunni groups to make life difficult for the Iraqi government and Coalition soldiers. The Guardian reports Iran already has a plan to ramp up the violence in time for U.S. General Petraeus’ report to Congress this fall.

The official said US commanders were bracing for a nationwide, Iranian-orchestrated summer offensive, linking al-Qaida and Sunni insurgents to Tehran’s Shia militia allies, that Iran hoped would trigger a political mutiny in Washington and a US retreat. “We expect that al-Qaida and Iran will both attempt to increase the propaganda and increase the violence prior to Petraeus’s report in September [when the US commander General David Petraeus will report to Congress on President George Bush’s controversial, six-month security “surge” of 30,000 troop reinforcements],” the official said.

“Certainly it [the violence] is going to pick up from their side. There is significant latent capability in Iraq, especially Iranian-sponsored capability. They can turn it up whenever they want. You can see that from the pre-positioning that’s been going on and the huge stockpiles of Iranian weapons that we’ve turned up in the last couple of months. The relationships between Iran and groups like al-Qaida are very fluid,” the official said.

The expected uptick in violence is being orchestrated by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps who answers only to the Ayatollah, according to the U.S. official quoted by the Guardian. None of this is exactly surprising to anyone who has followed Iran’s involvement in Iraq.

Now to Afghanistan where the Telegraph reports Iran has armed and trained the Taliban to fight Coalition and specifically British forces. Why would Iran support the Taliban when they were opposed to the Taliban during the group’s rise? It’s a matter of convenience and shared short-term objectives of course.

Officers in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard are supplying hundreds of weapons, including the missiles, to Taliban insurgents, it is believed.

Most worrying is the news that SA7 Strella anti-aircraft missiles have been supplied to the Taliban . . .

Other weapons being smuggled in include plastic explosives, anti-tank mines, AK47s, mortars, rocket-propelled grenades and machine guns.

“There is reporting that leads us to believe a number of agencies, that possibly include Iranian organisations, are significantly supporting the Taliban,” a military intelligence source told The Daily Telegraph.

There is no evidence that the technology behind the advanced roadside bombs that have penetrated at least four British armoured vehicles in southern Iraq has arrived in Afghanistan. But Iran is thought to have showed the Taliban how to make basic roadside bombs from old land-mines.

Just remember that in the greater context of the war in both theaters, forget all mention of Iran and focus like a laser beam on soldier deaths that just might encourage certain NATO nations to retreat after losing three while said nation has tried in earnest to keep as far away from the Taliban as they could.

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